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Modeling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes


wNATURE ISSENSCHAFTEN Modeling of anthropogenic and natural climate change Hartmut Gragl, Uwe Mikolajewicz and Stephan Bakan Max-Planck-Institut f / Jr Meteorologie, W-2000 Hamburg, Germany as knowledge about climate inventions, in the past, imminent or already started, which are also caused by humans has increased rapidly in recent years. Nevertheless, depending on the level of information or personal skepticism, there is still great uncertainty about the large extent of an anthropogenic climate change. The time scales are often mixed up, the inertia of some climate system components is neglected, or a detail such as the CO2 absorption is spoiled. In the following, an attempt will be made to clarify the current state of numerical modeling using a few examples, with deliberate short-term and sometimes regional phenomena such as aerosol pollution in the atmosphere, long-term global phenomena such as the additional greenhouse effect, and specific fluctuations , such as the salinity oscillation of the Atlantic, can be compared. Global climate change due to the additional greenhouse effect The increase in the climate-relevant gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) and nitrous oxide (N20, laughing gas) due to the activities of all people is undisputed (WMO / UNER 1990 and 1992). Since the beginning of industrialization, CO2 has risen from 280 to 355, CH4 from 0.7 to 1.7 and N20 from 0.28 to 0.31 millionths of a volume (ppmv). Because the slowly reacting components of the climate system, e.g. the world ocean and ice area, the consequences of the


Natural Sciences - Springer Journals

Published: Jun 1, 1993